ONC.t,...worth a read,...
This from Stockwatch BS boards by a poster bilosellhi. He took a post of mine about the Imclone's Erbitux drug being bought out by a big pharma (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.) for US$ Billions because this drug put one patient into remission and shrunk 22.5% of the other patients tumours. Based on current phase I results, I think ONC.t 's Reolysin is a more effective cancer eater than Erbitux showing tumor response in 60% of patients completing the phase I treatments.
He has displayed an interesting graph and some other interesting numbers.
***WARNING****Of course this is my "Hail Mary" squished hamster stock for this contest that may allow me to catch up to all those gold buggers (ggggggggggggg), and a significant portion of my holdings.
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?stat_num=4955511&all=0&t=0&archived=False&link_symbol=ONC&link_table=list&navmode=1&navd=rev&exchange=
i don't know what a realistic value is for onc – but to get an idea of the potential, have a look at imcl’s chart over the past couple of years in relation to news about their cancer drug erbitux.
(the following is taken from a recent post by russet)
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?stat_num=4754002&all=0&t=0&archived=Archive&link_symbol=ONC&link_table=LIST&navmode=1&navd=rev&exchange=
Until just a few months ago, though, blockbuster expectations for the drug were fueled by dramatic results for just one patient, Shannon Kellum. At age 28, the Florida woman had colon cancer that didn't respond to the only two chemotherapy regimens available. As it happened, her doctor knew about ImClone's drug and obtained it from the company.
The Kellum case was the topic of a presentation at the May 2000 annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. Two large tumors, the size of a grapefruit and an orange, had grown in Ms. Kellum's liver, Dr. Waksal has said. But treated with Erbitux, the tumors had shrunk in six weeks to about the size of a pea. What remained was removed surgically. "She was out of the hospital and back at work in two months," Dr. Waksal said in an interview.
The results were the talk of the ASCO meeting, and news reports of the findings provoked a deluge of interest in Erbitux. Within the next 10 months, ImClone received more than 10,000 requests on behalf of patients seeking "compassionate use" of the medicine, an FDA-sanctioned way desperately ill people can get promising drugs before they are approved.
Then, at a big ASCO meeting last May, researchers unveiled the ImClone study that the FDA subsequently would decline to review. The 120-patient trial showed Erbitux helped 22.5% of patients who had failed to respond to all other treatments. These results were good enough for the drug to share the limelight at the meeting with Novartis AG's novel cancer drug Gleevec, which had just been approved by the FDA in record time.
Here is the 2 year chart for imcl
From the imcl chart, you can see that it has been on a wild ride, going from $73 in April 2000 to a high of $101.50 on May 18, (around the time of the 2000 ASCO meeting) then dropping to $67.75 just a week later, then slowly rising to a post 2-for-1 split high of $67.63 in Nov. 2000.
The stock slowly lost ground again for the next several months, hitting a low of $26.06 on Mar. 22, 2001 and then started to take off again in May 2001 (coinciding with the 2001 ASCO meeting) hitting a high of over $55.87 on Jun 7. after a brief summer sell-off, the stock continued upward to a high of $73.83 on Dec. 5, 2001 (just before the FDA bombshell hit the stock, dropping it back to under $15 in Feb. 2002. it has since recovered to about $25 since.
Even at its recent low of $15/share, imcl was valued at over $1 billion US – if oncy could achieve a similar valuation, that would put it at about $50 US or over $80 Cdn.
I don’t know if an oncy vs. imcl comparison is necessarily fair or valid or the best one to make, but Dr. Coffey used imcl’s 22.5% success rate in their phase II trials as an example of just how low the threshold is for new cancer drugs to be considered effective.
These numbers do appear mind boggling for a company without an approved product, but the volatility indicates just how difficult it is to come up with a “reasonable” or “realistic” value for the “potential” of an effective cancer therapeutic.
I know I may be accused of hyping or criticisized for baseless speculation, but if phase II glio results in the US are good and phase II Canadian prostate trials suggest that reolysin is also effective, then I don’t think $100 Cdn is an unrealistic speculative target.
Am I expecting $100 Cdn? No. Do I think it would be worth that much? I don’t know – if it effectively treats certain forms of cancer, how much would you pay for the treatment if you had glio and were told you had 6 months to live? Or perhaps more to the point, if you could put a dollar value on human life, how much would it be? I would seriously question anyone who says they have the answer to that.
Do I think $100/share is possible? Yes.
that’s why I own the stock.
Jmho. contrary thoughts and opinions welcome. |
