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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: J.T. who wrote (2181)7/8/1997 10:13:00 PM
From: William H Huebl   of 94695
 
Hi JT,

I think what Bob and some of the others are trying to point out to us is that the SAFEST thing for an options trader to do is to hop aboard an existing trend. What does that mean? Take a look at GE. If you had gotten aboard that trend at almost any time in the past 3 years or so, you made money. Trying to call tops and bottoms of markets is rough duty.

THAT BEING SAID... in the case of an extremely overblown market where everyone has turned bulls (even my best friend is one), I believe it behooves everyone who values his or her capital more than profits to tuck their head in and get out. And by the same token, if you want to BENEFIT from the coming sell-off, you need to think big but wait for the beep. By now, I have gotten so many beeps my beeper's busted... so to speak.So in the face of all this..,. WE MAY WELL GET ALL THE WAY TO 8,000 OR MORE BEFORE THE BIG K. It seems all the signposts are gone and everything is backwards. I don't want to waste precious capital as cannon fodder for the bulls. But I have to realize I CAN BE WRONG AND THIS THING CAN GET TO 20,000 before it quits. I JUST DON'T KNOW!!!

So I am buying close in puts on really toppy stocks or those at or over their Raff Channels. And to add insult to injury, we can be absolutely right but wrong about the timing.

There are always cheap way out of the money 3 month puts...

Regards,

Bill
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