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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.38

-9.0%

Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (6036)	3/26/2002 4:45:39 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

Sam, The IMS data is like the Nielsens - everyone knows the data is badly flawed and everyone goes ahead and uses it religiously anyhow. Aside from the hospital scripts that Harold refers to it also has problems with home health care and nursing home drugs. Over-reliance on the data can be dangerous - sometimes you get inventory swings, particularly ahead of and following price increases that mean that sales don't follow scripts. The script data also doesn't pick up discounting. Finally you get weird weekly spikes and valleys - you really need to use a smoothed number when looking at the data. For a drug like Actimmune, the IMS data is likely pretty meaningless, particularly given the change in distribution channels. Last year there was a fuss with some biotech company's product when the IMS data was flat-out wrong for a month or so. Produced some big swings in the stock price while it got sorted out. (Anyone recall the drug involved?) That said, the data is certainly better than nothing, particularly when analyzing pharma and the big biotechs. Peter

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