Larry, I just follow the plan I laid out. I am boxed by a time interval (tomorro afternoon) and a price area (1797). I would have waited to "see the white in their eyes", if I thought the current bottom would be a typical capitulation. I have now come to the conclusion, that this time, we do not get capitulation (we should get it in late June), and instead we will develop a stealth rally. Note few important parameters, new lows on the Naz failed to expand, new highs, while still below the peak of 197 reached last week or the week before, have not dropped under 100. I also note the individual stocks that I have, and frankly, only two have had deterioration in their technical underpinnings, typically, if we were ready to drop, some 30% of the positions would be not only under water, but in precarious technical conditions. These to me means one of two things, either we go up from here without any typical bottom forming, or we breach 1793, and go sharply down (until we get capitulation). I can always run for the hills if we seem to follow West's scenario, the road to capitulation, but the approaching April first date, and the fact that the day before a long weekend (Thursday) is historically strong (on low volume), forces me, for now to adopt the first and bullish scenario. I am acutely aware of the negative sentiment indicators, and am ready to jump off at any sign my reasoning proves, once more, to be wrong.
Here I am, under 10% cash and shaking like an Autumn leaf in Spring. (g). Let the Spring rally commence....
Zeev |
