Arty, the kicker is return of inflation
I expect it to start with energy, horribly neglected
that shoots the shorterm bond market straight up
which attacks all highPE stocks, esp tech
the spread in bonds between 3-month and 10-year yield has NEVER been this high historically
I expect the shortend rate to rise from this temporary situation
this is a big storm cloud for tech stocks
I also expect big earnings disappointments across techland
expansion of capital equipment will remain on hold
then stage two is the effect on the dollar
most expect rising rates to attract more foreign capital
most bond experts expect the absolute opposite
onset of inflation and rising rates are a curse to stocks AND bonds
the dollar will begin to slide when GreenShorts raises rates
he is very very very reluctant to do so
a move toward parity with the Euro is in the cards
finally the devil's blend
sliding dollar imports inflation
the dollar strengthened all 1990 decade long
the 100% money supply inflation was hidden in trade deficits
such inflation is imported BACK HOME in 2002-04
inflation from energy, inflation from imports
and worst of all, inflation from 30% money supply increases since June2000 will soon filter in the system
I expect GreenSpastic legacy to get wiped out, made a villain
he has managed the Dept of Inflation for way too long
in 2002-04, his inflation becomes naked and crystal clear
gold and silver will be the ONLY inflation hedges
where is the hole in the above sequence?
has GreenSnot repealed inflation?
by the fundamental definition, he is the King of Inflation
it has yet to filter thru the pipes
thru US history, such monetary inflation has NEVER failed to filter thru the pipes into prices of goods & services
to get magnitude in mind...
the increase to money supply since June 2000 is 40% larger than the ENTIRE money supply in 1965
I expect inflation to rage in a couple of years
some bond experts believe we might see 5% inflation by December
that is what historically the big Treasury spread indicates now
in Germany, they have 5% inflation and 10% unemployment
stagflation is coming to the USA soon
best wishes to you and all the QCOM fans
but be careful and expect a nasty storm
all the clouds and storm fronts continue to build
the biggest inflationary supply phenomenon in the last 80 years has been the 100% money supply increase under GreenScrotum
from roughly $3.5 trillion to roughly $7 trillion
check my figures, you will be astonished
he is Secretary of Inflation, poster boy of inflation
coming sooner than we might think
I am into oil/gas stocks, with growing position in silver
the world silver supply is almost zero
commitment of traders is declining in silver, ready for blastoff
/ jim |
