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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.98

+1.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (6046)	3/27/2002 5:19:03 PM
From: ubrx	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Hello Biomaven, It is good to see some discussion of Scios here at SI. Natrecor was approved about a week before labor day last year. The 14 million in sales was almost all in the fourth quarter (9.6 million Q4 '01 -- Q3 '01 sales were the initial stocking at the wholesaler and a few hospitals and not much else). The company has very conservatively predicted 11 million in sales for the first quarter of this year. They should blow that away when they report on 4/18/02. I admit that some of the increased sales are priced in currently -- but how much? My GUESS is that $15-16MM is very possible this quarter. Given the 80/20 profit split with Quintiles the added revenue should help Scios reach profitability more quickly. Going forward the JAMA article and other mostly positive coverage in the medical journals should go a long way toward improving market penetration. As for your cautious MD friend, I think he is one of many MD's that are not fully convinced.... yet. Do you know if he has experience using Natrecor on CHF patients? Jim

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