Cal, this may help explain the Dundee sell today.
We all know by know that Dundee has been an Amigo since early 2001. As such, they have been seen regularly selling Dimethaid, almost always in accordance with TSE short selling rules (ie. side or uptick only).
However, for those us who follow trading closely, we know that there has been somebody(s) who trades DMX through Dundee, as well. Those trades have been obvious as the ones on the buy side, or those that are sold on a down tick.
Today's Dundee sell was NOT Acqua, since the sell was at market.
I went back a little while into the trading records and isolated the buys of the elusive Dundee trader for the last little while. From January 9 through to February 18, there were no Dundee buys. Then, on February 18, immediately following the FDA news, the Dundee trader started buying. Below are all the buys for Dundee from Feb 18 to date:
(Date, Shares, Avg Price)
20020218 500 5.78
20020219 5,000 5.52
20020221 10,000 5.19
20020222 2,250 5.12
20020301 6,000 5.19
20020325 500 4.50
Total 24,250 5.25
The amount of shares sold today by Dundee - 24,000 at an average price of $4.33.
I personally don't think it's a coincidence that the amounts are pretty much identical. It looks like this person thought like all the rest of us after the FDA plant inspection - namely that the price was going to keep moving up, and that a pull back would stop in the low 5's.
When the price broke down today, after a couple days of trying to move back up, somebody at CIBC decided to sell 20,000 at $4.45. This was likely due to a signal of a technical break through of support at $4.50. That was about 3:00pm and most of those shares stayed on the offer into the close. If that person was really on to any soon to break bad news, would they have left those shares on the offer into the close? No, they likely would have taken the shares that Dundee took out.
Now back to the Dundee trader. It seems that once this person saw the break through of support at $4.50, confirmed by the CIBC offer, that person decided to cut their losses and take their 24,000 off the table.
I know how that Dundee seller must feel, since I personally purchased shares after the FDA announcement, thinking I would never see the $4's again. In fact many people who thought like myself and the Dundee trader, likely were even willing to extend the margin thinking this was a sure thing now. Those people who bought on margin are likely getting calls at this level forcing them to sell and cut their losses. Another perfect example of this is the Union (06)sell of 20,000 a couple days ago. Those 20,000 were bought shortly after the FDA NR, as well.
It seems Acqua is taking it's toll on the price and forcing many of the loyal longs to take protective measures as they wait for the golden egg from south of the border. Thanks Acqua!
joe |
