Thank you, Biomaven, for the thoughtful reply at a level that analyzes the segmentation in the potential market for natrecor I wasn't even aware existed -:).
Implicit in your benchmarks (put another way, I am inferring from your statement "is likely already fairly valued at these prices") is a seven or eight multiple of sales as a formula. Is that equally appropriate here with the revenue split with its marketing partner or is the haircut too fine with which to quibble (80/20 split?)?
Are there secular forces at work, generally speaking, that should compress or inflate the 7X-8X revenue formulation for drug companies and BT's with sales revenues generally? Clearly, in the case of a SEPR or a SGP, for example, assuming for the moment that they were characterized as antihistamine drug companies only, sui generis factors such as the portent of a move to otc status, would bear on the multiple assigned to that segment of revenues, in different ways.
Given the existing level of sales of the drug, SCIO's value ramp has been rapidly discounted, but of course there are other possible value drivers.
Thanks, as always,
quid |
