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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 171.81+0.5%9:53 AM EST

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To: sag who wrote (116102)3/28/2002 10:02:01 AM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
It is of course useful to argue long-term projections in deciding whether an investment is worthwhile. However, to compare a stock to long term Treasury bonds, and then make an investment decision based only on that set of considerations, is to ignore the larger picture.

Anyone who invests in stocks such as Q is not(or should not) be thinking exclusively in terms of whether it will outperform long term Treasury bonds. The investment decision, at least in my case, is one in which a substantial amount of speculative reasoning preceded the bet. I use the gambling term purposefully.

Any alert investor knows that Q can and has delivered spectacular returns. Moreover, factors are in place which could lead to significant returns in the future. A sophisticated investor also knows that the risk that the stock will not deliver long terms returns exceeding Treasury yields is substantial. He presumably has made the investment in order to potentially capitalize on his assumption that high returns are likely. Thus, the Treasury yield comparison is relevant but only to the extent it is a measure of an investor's tolerance for risk. A more conservative investor could easily be convinced to go elsewhere based on the comparions made by Mucho and others while a more aggressive one will not be dissuaded because he is convinced his calculations could lead to higher than market returns.

The comparisons are merely tools. It all comes down to one's investment style. And in matters of taste and style, there are no disputes.
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