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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS
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To: SE who wrote (8579)3/28/2002 5:19:49 PM
From: fut_trade  Read Replies (1) of 8925
 
I appreciate the link.

I would rather talk about system trading, instead trying to find a few individuals who do well in the markets. I've spent a lot of time testing many systems, and I can sure say that it's easier to find a system that performs neutral, then it is to find one that makes money or loses money consistently.

I've done a lot of work with pattern identification. That works well on historical data. But I've found that patterns are more of a coincidence, than some holy grail for trading. I can find patterns that win 90 or 100% of the time in historical data, but when tested on new data, the performance can be quite poor.

Break-out systems work fairly well, but can go through large drawdowns.

I suppose someone will say that discretionary trading is the way to beat drawdowns, but the problem here is that there are no facts to back it up - and testing is impossible. So that brings us back to system testing.
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