What next for Iraq?
Jane's 20 March 2002
janes.co.uk
[A scenario projected by Jane's, more arguments for tekboy's bet:]
A torrent of anti-American criticism continues to pour out of the world's media and Britain's Tony Blair only managed with some difficulty to prevent a major dispute with his European colleagues over Iraq at the European Union's latest summit, which took place in Spain last weekend. However, far from feeling isolated or disheartened, the administration is proceeding quickly to finalising military options on Iraq. Here are the details of the current thinking in Washington.
Contrary to press reports, the Bush administration has not decided yet on what type of operation is envisaged. Pentagon planners laugh at the force of 250,000 mentioned in the media. The world press is out of date and out of touch.
First, today's wars are not about huge numbers of troops. Even in Afghanistan where the American interest was obvious and public support remained overwhelming, the Pentagon never authorised the presence of more than 35,000 US troops - a ceiling that was never even reached. The United States did not wish to occupy Afghanistan, and has no interest in occupying Iraq.
Air power again
The key to these campaigns is the combination of massive air power with the insertion of highly mobile but restricted numbers of special forces, designed to mop up on the ground, quickly and efficiently, what air power alone cannot do. True, the Pentagon has a plan to occupy Iraq, but it is one of many and will probably gather dust on a shelf.
Don't expect anything tomorrow
The Pentagon needs time to prepare. Nobody knows how many troops will remain in Central Asia, and how many more will be needed for another campaign. This should take until the summer.
The Pentagon has written off the possibility of using its bases in Saudi Arabia. The bases in Turkey will be used. Nobody has noticed, but the Americans have set up bases in Romania and Bulgaria, both on the Black Sea. These skeleton bases will serve as a supply line and as places for pre-positioning equipment.
At the same time, the screws are being turned on Saddam himself. He may make some concessions to Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, who is currently talking to the Iraqis. But whatever the Iraqis offer, it will not be enough for the Americans. Eventually negotiations will break down and Bush will authorise the preparations for war. Neither the Russians nor the Europeans will complicate matters. This cat-and-mouse game could last until autumn.
403 of 873 words
[End of non-subscriber extract.] |
