Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45052)	3/29/2002 12:14:43 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Murray. RE: Seasonality. . . <<The VTO report of the April 3rd & 4th phenomenon is based on how many occurrences? The Stock Traders Almanac, which bases their Nasdaq probability on 28 years of observation, have a 65.5% probability on the 3rd (moderately high) a 51.7% on the 4th (neutral) of the Nasdaq rising. >> VTO has a list of the Nasdaq performance on every day of the year, based on every time there's been trading on that day since the Nasdaq opened (in 1971). That information is here (scroll down for April). vtoreport.com April 4th is historically up only 23.81% of the time (5 out of 21). April 3rd is historically up 59.09% of the time. Both days have an average loss during their history. Now, this means absolutely nothing about this coming year, of course. Anyone who remembers back to December 31st of last year knows that Larry's trend paradox can be proven at any time (December 31st had never been a down Nasdaq day. Ever. And then. . . poof! This past December 31st was a big, down day). I wonder how the VTO site and the Stock Traders Almanac site seem to have different results for each day, since I suspect both of them use the same base statistics. You said the Stock Traders Almanac uses 28 years of study, so perhaps it hasn't added the last two years worth of data? I don't know. Perhaps, like the different TICK readings from multiple sites, there's a mystery we'll never solve. the freep

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