and maybe this one ...
stratfor.com
Israel Preparing for Drawn-Out Campaign
29 March 2002
Summary
Israel stepped up military operations in the West Bank March 29 in response to devastating Palestinian suicide bombings this week. However, although the actions appear similar to earlier Israeli sweeps in the occupied territories, the government's decision to mobilize thousands of reservists indicates a substantial increase in the scope and length of the operations.
Analysis
Israeli tanks and troops rolled into the West Bank March 29 in the start of what appears to be the beginning of a protracted military operation against the Palestinians. Israeli military personnel are currently occupying Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Ramallah compound, and although five Palestinians and one Israeli soldier were killed during the siege, Arafat was unhurt.
The failure of the Arab summit and a suicide bombing on the eve of Passover this week have crystallized Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's belief that military operations are the only way to deal with the Palestinian conflict. A decision March 29 to mobilize Israeli reservists strongly suggests that the subsequent military actions will be much more extensive that what we have seen thus far.
The summit in Beirut March 27-28, ostensibly to discuss the recent Saudi-led Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal, was not a proud time for Arab nations. Much of the leadership didn't even show up, including heavyweights such as Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah. A walkout by the Palestinian delegation added to the disarray while a reported medical emergency for Saudi Prince Nawaf essentially brought the substantive portion of the summit to a close almost before it began.
The bottom line for Sharon is that the summit completely failed in producing any real agreement or movement on the Saudi peace proposal. It showed that the Arab governments are incapable of bringing an end to the violence in Israel and the occupied territories.
This conviction was reinforced by the bombing of a crowded hotel dining room in the Israeli town of Netanya March 27. More shocking than the death toll -- at least 20 dead and 100 wounded -- was that the attack took place on Passover Seder, the ritual meal at the start of one of the most holy Jewish holidays, equivalent to Thanksgiving or Christmas in the United States.
It goes without saying that the attack, claimed by Islamic militant group Hamas, was designed to enrage the Israeli government, and in this it has succeeded. The Sharon administration likely sees the bombing as proof that Israel is engaged in a war and must behave as such.
So far the Israeli response has been tough but relatively similar to earlier military operations. Israeli troops set up checkpoints and blockades in the Gaza Strip, effectively cutting the territory into three parts. Tanks and troops are moving into the West Bank, clustering around the cities of Tulkarm and Nablus and moving into Ramallah.
Israeli and other media sources report seeing 150 to 200 tanks and up to 20,000 troops in Ramallah. Special attention is being paid to Arafat's headquarters, which is now almost completely occupied. Arafat is reportedly taking refuge in a basement.
The Israeli measures are meant to destroy or disrupt the Palestinian military infrastructure. Occupying Arafat's building and keeping him underground throws his organization into chaos and sidelines him from the action. Meanwhile, searches and sweeps by Israeli forces are intended to discover weapons caches and factories, as well as keep militants on the move. The Israelis will also be detaining as many male Palestinians as possible, hoping to scoop up wanted militants in broad sweeps.
But one thing separates this offensive from earlier operations -- the mobilization of Israeli military reserves. Reservists on regular rotation have been used during the current intifada since it began in 2000, but now the Sharon government has approved the mobilization of an unknown number of reserves who were not scheduled to see action, something that the Israeli military does only in time of war.
No firm numbers have been announced, but local media reports suggest numbers ranging from 10,000 to 20,000. This is the largest such call-up for Israel since the Persian Gulf War, and in comparison about 70,000 troops were mobilized in 1967 when the West Bank was originally occupied by Israel.
Draft centers for reservists are set up at Israeli high schools, currently closed for the Jewish holiday of Passover. Buses, which the army presses into service during emergencies, lined the streets outside the schools, ABC news reported. The fact that the call-up is taking place despite the Passover holiday underscores the depth and urgency of Israel's current campaign.
We do not anticipate a shift in Israeli military tactics but rather an increase in the breadth and length of Israeli operations. Longer operations running several weeks and covering more cities at once appear to be the order of the day. |
