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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2503)	3/29/2002 8:04:45 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (4) of 95622

Just for "kicks", I went back to 8 October 1998, the "bottom" for the semi-equips at the last down cycle. Then I went forward 3 months to 8 January 1999 and looked at the values of AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, TER and the SOX. I then compared these in the table below. 10/8/98 1/8/99 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE AMAT 11.19 27.75 148 KLAC 10.94 26.44 142 NVLS 7.31 21.83 199 TER 7.82 24.53 214 SOX 189.90 391.43 106 Obviously, there were many differences between "then" and "now", but it is interesting to see the same pattern. Once a bottom has been found and a "recovery" begins, the semi- equip stocks in the SOX are way out ahead - leading the SOX upward. Why this semi-equip leadership is so I do not know. Maybe others can articulate the reasons. I, for one, would certainly like to understand the process. Don

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