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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (45109)3/29/2002 8:23:51 PM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
"You will have to provide me with dates. I see the bubble of 2000 that supports your notion."

I counted months when it first reached 160 from a lower
level, and looked at whether the COMP went higher in the
following two months:

$NAHL COMP Higher One to
to 160 Two Months Later?

Late June, 1999 No

Mid-Nov., 1999 Yes

Late Dec., 1999 Yes

Mid-May, 2001 No

Late June, 2001 No

I agree that the times when the COMP continued up after
$NAHL 160 were in the bubble period. Does that justify
disregarding the data? My point is that the correlation is
not good enough to draw conclusions one way or the other.
This becomes even more true when you consider Zeev's point
about the NASDAQ throwing out losers, which means that
today's 160 corresponds to a lower point on the $NAHL curve
when comparing to times before the losers got tossed.
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