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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.14+0.4%Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2505)3/29/2002 9:00:27 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95632
 
Why do semi equips outperfrom early in a cycle?

Predictability.

Don, I think perhaps it is because in order to lower cost of production and increase profitability semiconductor companies must order new capital equipment early in a cyclical recovery.

Consider Intel's new P-4 processor:

marketwatch.com

The latest P4 chips available next week will be made using 200mm wafers, but in a month the P4 2.4 GHz is expected to be made from 300mm wafers. Also, the chips are made using 0.13 micron technology.

The 300mm wafers combined with the processing technology at 0.13 microns results in lower costs and higher performance.


As the recovery kicks in companies order new equipment due to increased demand and higher profits. Just like TSM I believe INTC and MU among others will soon up their capex expectations. It seem fairly dependable that the semi equips will run higher first. This may be the reason but if not then I guess dumb money piled on dumb money?

I trust you had a great trip? Glad to have you back. Thank for the tables which we are now burying again.

So... when are you starting your web site? <ggg>

RtS
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