Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45052)	3/30/2002 6:23:35 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (3) of 99280

Nasdaq Seasonality in April: It's your $ of course, but personally I think the ave % return is more important than the % of up days. The site address is www.vtoreport.com. The database encompasses 30yrs. Here's what it shows for the 3rd, 4th and 5th: 3rd: up 59% of the time, cumulatively -0.53% ave loss. 4th: up 24% of the time, ave -0.44% loss. 5th: up 70% of the time, ave +0.79% gain. The 3rd is a bit of a statistical anomaly, in which the Nasdaq has gone up almost 3/5th of the time, yet gains tended to be small, and losses much larger. I'm in the process of completing my w/e analysis, and am unsure whether I'll try to play the seasonal strength from the 5th thru the 18th. 33% invested right now. One unique factor this year is that the Nasdaq significantly underperformed the DJIA and S&P 500 in Q1, so portfolio managers who didn't want to show losers being increased in their portfolio for Q1 may be more inclined to buy Nasdaq stocks after the 31st.

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