Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (17613)	3/30/2002 1:00:45 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) of 74559

>>Why do you expect double digit returns? Do you think valuations don't matter?<< Yes, I think valuations matter, but I also believe that the market can stay irrational longer than you, I or anyone can stay solvent betting against it. I expect double digit returns because I think corporate profits will come back strongly this year and in 2003 and I think that the baby boomers will be net buyers of stocks for six or seven more years, keeping P/Es high - irrationally high by historical standards. The economic significance of the baby boom generation - my generation - should not be underestimated. This is not a value judgement of any kind, it's a function of raw numbers. The baby boom generation is a huge demographic force. I expect to see single digit P/Es again, but not until this particular demographic pig has passed through the python.

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