Caxton, according to Edwards and Magee, gaps continue to be relevant for years, and are often not filled until years after they occur.
18 might not be such an outlandish target for qcom. Currently we are expected to make .90-1.00 this year. If we get further earnings deceleration, eg from slowdown in China or losses in Vesper or slowed rollout of 1x due to lack of funding, say to .75-.80 this year, and if we include possible PE compression due to reduced growth, say 25 instead of 35-40, then Qcom price would be in 18-20 range.
I really don't know where Qcom will bottom, but it does not appear to have found a bottom yet. I won't buy it until it demonstrates a clear reversal pattern, which might not happen until 18, or who knows, maybe even lower.
In the meantime, the gold charts look pretty good.
Robin |
