The correlation coefficient of the Nasdaq for March between
the Average Daily G/L and the Compq daily % was 0.386, not
bad! The 1st and last calendar days of the month are always
the 1st and last trading days of the month unless they are
holidays, in which case they have no impact. Given that the
VTO Report is for the years 71 to 01 and the STA for 72 to
00, they should correlate very well on those dates but they
do not!
March 1, March 31, April 1, April 30, 2002
VTO Report 65.22% 76.19% 55.56% 68.18%
March 1, March 28, April 1, April 30, 2002
Stock T. 65.5% 69.0% 34.5% 79.3%
I can explain the discrepancy, especially on April 1st;
21%! The VTO compilation on April 1st is for 19 years and
the STA for 29. It seems that when the first trading day of
April does not fall on April Fools Day it is usually
bearish! The DJIA has been up 8 of the last 10 1st trading
days of April, but of the 4 that were not on April 1st 2
were down. As you say an avg. % gain of 0.35% for April 1
in the Nasdaq is probably the most meaningful number. I'm
still waiting for a buy signal on the Compq, it has not
even hit the lower Bollinger Band yet. |
