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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Stocks Trader Talk

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To: Robert New who wrote (699)	3/31/2002 11:32:39 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (2) of 787

Rob, Homebuilders. CTX looks the ripest to me. J. Nail mentioned this one and the more I look at it I think he has a point. PHM is another but they look good y-o-y because of the Del Webb merger. However, their chart is not one of the better ones. Once 3Q comes around and we see "true" comparison I don't think the revenue growth will be as rosy. TOL looks interesting because they just annouced a split (dumb) and a big shelf offering. No wonder they have the highest current debt levels and but no long term debt. I really don't understand their strategy but the stock offering will be dilutive and I imagine they want to do that soon as to reduce short term debt as they have one of the higher total debt to equity ratios according to the quicken comps. siliconinvestor.com Here is a fundie comparison of MDC, PHM, RYL, TOL, LEN, CTX, BZH quicken.com CTX. Since part of their business is low margin building materials I think they could have trouble in the early industry slowing stages making earnings. Highest debt/to equity ratio some lowest return on equity. High institutional ownership could play against them if we see rotation out of the industry. Here is another comparison. This site ranks by fundies or performance. With fundies you will see that the ones I like and will trade short are CTX, TOL, PHM, MDC, LEN (in that order) www2.barchart.com Just looking at some more info. RYL has been one of the stronger movers. It is looking ripe. Joe

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