brational,
I guess I did not make my point very clearly so I will enlist the help of this whitepaper presented almost exactly a year ago at the Qualcomm spring analysts meeting.
qualcomm.com
While the report was obviously biased, time has shown that it may not be biased enough and had given WCDMA too much credit. As events unfold, I am becoming a stronger believer that we will NOT see WCDMA as planned right now. This is our major difference.
Your wish list of 9 objectives are all based on the cdma/1x/evdo path to success. I think it may be more important to watch for the failure of the GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA path.
Docomo is very significant. They are big. They were a virtual monopoly. Their 3G spectrum did not cost money, especially compared to the euro counterparts. They have a huge subscriber base of "advanced" users. They are the only carrier in the world who have extensive experience in providing wireless data. If any carrier can make a go with WCDMA, I cannot think of a better candidate. So far, it is not very encouraging that wcdma in Japan would succeed techncially and certainly not economically.
Now if you add the burden of spectrum TAX that all the carriers paid in Europe, has anyone done a study as to how much data ARPU would be needed to finance the already incurred debt plus cap ex for wcdma built-out?
At one point, I was of the camp that GPRS success would be good because it will promote wireless data. Now I believe that if that path is going to fail sooner or later, sooner is better.
Thanks to Eric's recent posts and links on the Nokia threads, it clearly pointed out how desperate the situation is for the GSM to GPRS migration. With 98 networks in operation, there is not a single carrier who can claim success, or just visions of financial success with GPRS in the future.
I have seen a number of financial models for the valuation of QCOM. If the GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA path fails, all the QCOM models I have seen would be have to be significantly altered to refect the new state of the wireless world.
The voicestream news is interesting. Could they be the first to realize that they are doomed and need to search for a new path? Is this 802.11 a solution?
I understand that 802.11 has security problems. Now if Voicestream offers that as an alterative to high demand areas, how are they going to deal with that issue. While Starbucks are repeatedly mentioned, how about convention centers? How about consumer electronics show in Vegas? We all remember what happened to IMJ's laptop. Would road warriors risk have their laptops heck into?
In conclusion, I think while it is important to see how successful 1X, 1X ev do and China launch may or may not be, it is equally important to watch for the failure of the dark side.
Ramsey |
