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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS
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To: Victoria Pearson who wrote (8615)3/31/2002 11:54:42 AM
From: fut_trade  Read Replies (1) of 8925
 
"I do not find the action random at all when the market is trending, which is why it is so important to identify the market conditions all the time."

I'm sure you're aware of volatility break-out systems. They are designed to catch a trend. And they work.

Now that I have a system that works, I can plug in some settings and see how much money I can make per trade, winning percentage, drawdown, consistency in profits, effect of protective stops, etc...

What I find is that these systems do make money, but we are looking at maybe a net gain of say $50/trade/emini over say the last 10 years. That is not really a lot of money.

"If the short term action looks random "nearly" all the time... this only says that the on looker does have a good background in understanding price action... in which case system trading is a sensible choice."

I would say that price action is random most of the time. I can't make money most of the time. So I spend I lot of time waiting for some sort of break-out... which I would call a non-random event.

I suppose what on my mind is if a discretionary trader like yourself can make money most of the time? I have no problem accepting the belief that the market is a nearly random process most of the time if it helps me to know that to make money I must wait for some event to be triggered...

There is not a lot data available on systems trading, and far less on discretionary trading...
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