Cohu, Inc. (COHU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

COHU 28.88

+2.3%

12:02 PM EST

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To: Pink Minion who wrote (2762)	3/31/2002 12:26:52 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 7832

Hi SemiBear, Little bit I know about ascending triangles is they usually breakout - to the downside. Cohu is bumping up against a long term historical resistance level: 09/04/97 @ 28.75 10/08/97 @ 28.88 12/08/99 @ 30.75 12/27/99 @ 31.75 This chart just barely shows the 99 resistance - SI's monthly data is corrupt and doesn't adjust for a 2 for 1 split(farther back in time - the 55 top before the 62 top should be 25-26). siliconinvestor.com Cohu's first rise to 28.00 on 09/02/97 thru 10/03/97 - (23 trade days) was a failed rally and declined to 12.75 by 10/08/98 Cohu's second attack on 30 peaked at 30.75 on 12/08 thru. 01/13/00 (26 trade days)was a similar "ascending triangle or cup and handle that broke out and climaxed at 61.75 on 03/06/00. siliconinvestor.com Cohu's recent action shows to be a 2 week old cup and handle after a breakout from the 25 level.The original rise ocurred on strong volume, tailed down to the breakout level of 25 (on very light volume) and has once again found resistance at the high 29's.Daily volume back in this cup and handle was typically 80-120 thousand shares daily in the cup and the handle got really quiet with days of big volume surges 200k,240k,300k.During all this time price flatlined between 28-31. These are tenuous moments. On the plus side we've got : good volume action, some recent good business news,AMAT the 800 pound gorilla industry leader, has a 2 for 1 split for owners of record tomorrow.2 for 1 splits are historically one of the best indicators of this sectors future growth and profitability- I think it says huge things about the near future. On the negative we don't have that blow out volume popping us over 30 - yet.We need to endure more nervous sideways action (23-26 trading days).Monday wiill be day 15 or 16. So times are exciting and a day of watching this little jewel seems like a week.gg Perhaps and probably the earnings announcement will be the catalyst -either way. Guess I now have a better understanding of William O'neill's opinion on handles -they perform a weeding out of the last weak nervous holders.I think key to this waiting period is seeing days of mysterious big volume not impacting the price.Institutions selling amongst eachother.If there is enough institutional demand to absorb those talking profits we'll be off to the races. Nothing I'd like better than to make a right side of a longer term cup all the way up to 61.75 - and then sweat the final handle. There - if it ever gets there ,.I'll definately be a weak nervous seller - if I'm able to go the trip.Last time I bailed prematurely at 43-46. Hey nobody's perfect. Let's hope this rally holds - the industry group is definately an early performer and on the move. Bob

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