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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)
LU 2.650+0.4%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: sylvester80 who wrote (19778)3/31/2002 1:37:45 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (3) of 21876
 
Ok... yes, I misunderstood. I do agree that decrease in capex spending by carriers is almost over, if not already.

However, what is not clear is whether lack of decrease in capex translates into lack of decrease in revenue to incumbent suppliers. This is the issue: lack of insight into the degree to which mix is shifting, and the long-term nature of the shift. Particularly relevant with respect to strong non-traditional competitors, e.g. Cisco, JNPR et. al.

So really we need to see an increase if we want to assume that current revenue levels to incumbent suppliers will remain constant against shift of mix.

Either that or more innovation across the breadth of product line than they currently support. Which is difficult for a shrinking enterprise to accomplish. Many babies thrashing in pools of bathwater at the moment.

John
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