An EXQUISITE 27yr POG --RISK-- Graphic. Enjoy.
aol.com
Zardoz, you are so SOOO accurate when you wrote: Too few people here or anywhere in the public understand what risk is.
COMMENTARY POINTS BELOW:
1) When looking at that 27 year, graphic, Z, you will of all people I know, will of course immediately notice the graphically inserted S/R horizontal line at approximately the $300 to $332ish trading range in gold.
2) For the uninitiated, that is a PENETRATED support line. Those "S" lines now becomes extremely tough "R" lines, i.e., "resistance" to get through.
And there are over 19 of those 27 years worth of mining supply meets retail demand (which includes manufacturing demand) or ECON 101 Supply/Demand equilibrium reasons why investing in the HIGH RISK NOTION that gold going bonkers through this bubble gum zone is not going to happen anytime soon, if ever again.
Not in yours and my lifetimes.
3) I find comparative risk between the 3 commodities of interest.
4) You and I can also agree that the higher the ROR as evidenced by the left axis, the harder it is to ENTER this gold pricing game late in the 4th quarter of current price stability and at this massive resistance level engineered by those in seats of power.
Or to put it another way, to enter this Price of Gold-gold sector speculation from the sidelines at the 195% ROR level---roughly this $300-332 bubble-gum zone--and to hope to ever see 400% level (which for a 195% level entrant would only be a double) is so damn risky, I don't even know how to put a quant analysis "number" on this gold fervor brought about by this last $20 rally in gold to this historical resistance level.
5) Even under the "Rule of Seven", many many MORE conservative, aka LESS RISKY investment choices should double one's money in 7 years.
6) To go against 27 years of history and WAG (wild ass guess) that investors entering from the sidelines at the 195 percentile level, and fervently believe "THEY" will beat the odds because Murphy or Arafat or US$ or Enronitis or Argentina or Saudia Arabia or a presidential assassination or a suitcase bomb will cause PoG to "explode higher" well, that is utter foolishness--an total mis-reading of the risk indicators in this pure chart.
Have fun with this one folks. Me? Well, I'm in all day long at UNDER $20 a troy oz for gold so I don't care if it moves $20 more dollars to $320 level...It's only another "double" for my over my cost if it does!
Ciao
People |
