Zeev,
Do you really think anyone can make a credible argument (fundamentally, technically, historically even) for guessing where the markets will go now -- without at least qualifying it with "barring no more terrorists' attacks, no major mideast war, etc."?
Look at the action of the entire world's markets from Sept. 1st -- that's 1st, NOT 11th. EVERY world market has reacted pretty much the same. The charts say, "Everything was very bleak on September 1st. The world was in recession. Business had been getting worse and worse. The markets were way too high -- might even argue a bubble. BUT, thank goodness the terrorists attacked America. Why that one event alone negated all the previous thoughts of bad business or high valuations or recession. That one event reversed and erased all the correction in the markets for the previous many months. Look how the entire world markets have bounced back not just to values pre-9/11, not just values of a few weeks before 9/11, not just a couple of months, but back to values BEFORE we realized (now we say 'thought' because it OBVIOUSLY was not bad at all in April, May, June, July, August, Sept.) anything was wrong. Can you imagine if there had been no attack? Why, the markets might have declined back to levels of "irrational exuberance" in 1996! Could someone PLEASE attack again so our markets could drop a little and then climb back to new highs so everyone can be rich again?"
Zeev, tell me the world and its economies are safer, more secure, more predictable, and stronger now than they were last June, July, August! Tell me Pakistan's market should have gone from 1200-1300 to its current 1868; that Taiwan should go from 4000 to 6000; that South Korea should go from 500 to 900; that Sri Lanka should go from 400 to 600; that Russia should go from 2500 to 4200; etc., etc., etc. Is it the Pakistani people buying their market? I have some thoughts on the entire world market system, but I think in due time it will be abundantly clear who is directing the flow.
Call me an old geezer, but I say people who point to the drop of Nasdaq 5000 to its present levels and call it a terrible bear are an isolated FEW who are spoiled, selfish, and have NO historical perspective on anything. This "bear" has affected only a MINOR portion of the people. Only when MOST Americans are affected will they understand the ridiculous market climbs of the past few years. These clowns on CNBC would sell their souls for a buck. What they don't see is that they have NO control over what is ultimately going to happen or how badly it will play out.
I remain,
SOROS
p.s. remember when ONE guy steps up with all the answers to wealth and safety, run like hell because that is where he will be from
p.p.s. I really would like your answers to the questions about the shape of everything now compared to last mid-to-late summer BEFORE 9/11. Thanks. |
