N is completely preoccupied with what's going on the the ME. He can't keep away from the TV news and is talking and emailing with people about the subject all the time. He just sent this email to his brother. It's just sort of summary thoughts:
...Suicide bombing and related extreme acts of terror represent a winning strategy for Arafat because
1) It's cheap (cost/benefit) and exploits the fertility imbalance between Israelis and Palestinians -- so, leverage.
2) Palestinians are already a pauper nation, but terror pauperizes the Israelis disproportionately. Cuts tourism, which is a huge part of national income, cuts investment, costs huge amounts in security costs, disrupts the economy by forcing the reserves to be called up, promotes brain drain.
3) Counter-reactions by Israel are under severe restraint because of the Western gaze. (Israel is being driven into incoherent policy, like destroying Palestinian jails and police stations and then telling Arafat to pick up and hold potential and actual terrorists. Israel is being driven crazy.)
4) Palestinians gain, among Arab elites and masses, as they define themselves as heroic martyrs.
Conclusion is that Arafat's object is to force international intervention by UN/EU -- not us-- in final settlement talks. Pro-Palestinian sentiment is powerful in UN and EU.
Historical note: Israel's settlement policy represents the worst Good Idea ever conceived. The notion was to create an irresistible package that could be traded for peace. In fact, the settlements and the steps necessary to maintain them and protect the settlers drove the Palestinians crazy. (Tearing up olive groves; people dying on the way to the hospital because they were held up at roadblocks; interrupting access to paid employment; a whole separate road system for Israelis not Palestinians, etc.)
Historical note 2: The success of Hezbollah in raising the pain suffered by the Israelis during their occupation of southern Lebanon gave the Palestinians in the territories what they thought was a good idea, because the Israelis picked up and left Lebanon, fast and completely.
Historical note 3: Second worst Good Idea -- Israeli support and subsidies for Hamas in its early days. (Intended to split Palestinian support for the
annoying secular forces.) |
