Challo, as you surely know by know, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, and change their opinion often, on February 1st ( #reply-16995894), they already lowered their "expectation for the Feb low to 1793 (the Naz was still at 1910/40 on 2/1), Lowered rapidly within a day or two to the mid 1700 (1757) (#reply-17010153 and #reply-17017701), and suggested an interim rally to 1880 (we got one to 1877 on Feb 14). Then on February 8, observing the market behavior, I made another mistake suggesting ( #reply-17033367) that the decline post that rally will be about 140 points from that top, and of course, I missed by a solid 50 Naz points. That happens to the turnips. As far as the rest of the forecast, I view the 1600 plus minus 30 as what "should have" been the September bottom (if you remember at the time I was talking about the "coalescense" of an August and an October bottom to a single bottom to occur Sep 16th 2001) without the 9/11, that is why, right now, I do not expect the June decline to be more than a double bottom with that "virtual bottom", and reserve the 1400 area and possibly worse, to an eventual pre Iraq conflagration in the Autumn. Can that scenario be wrong? Sure it was wrong before. I'll simply try and correct it just ahead of time as the market slowly opens its own kimono. (g).
My strategy for tomorrow, however is to use the morning swoon down to once more go after the Q and few other traders. It will depend how we open and if there are any indications outside of the big stocks of resistance to the decline.
Zeev |
