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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49201)	4/1/2002 6:49:54 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) of 65232

SilveryKnuckleDragger, I had always looked at the COT commercials as the smart money even though data doesn't support that except perhaps at major market turns. They seemed to right about gold back in Dec. 2000 seeing them being longer than short if my memory serves me right. Now I see them leaning quite a bit in the opposite direction. I guess they can afford to wrong for a long long time... Seeing now that these are mostly hedged bets, it makes a little more sense. If I knew a thing or two about spread sheets I would be able to tool around with their historical data and plot it against a chart of physical silver or gold to see how good their contrarian positions work. Perhaps there is a website somewhere that already does this... <Edit> <Clappy goes off and scours the internet for a few minutes...> Here is what I found... sharelynx.net Click on PM's (Precious Metals) Then pick one to see it's longer term chart... The Red is the net Commercial postions. Blue are the Non Commercials... Top graph is the price of physical. Open Interest chart is at bottom in black. As you can see the Commercial/Non Commercials are almost inverse reflections of each other. I also see that the Commercials spike down hard near the temporary tops. (See long term gold/silver chart, too.) This is basically what I was trying to point out with my nonsensicle COT posts... -SilverClappers

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