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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 304.92-0.1%Dec 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (2543)4/1/2002 9:10:03 AM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (2) of 95652
 
From Briefing.com: 7:27AM Semi industry revs declined 27% in February-- best comp since April : The Semiconductor Industry Association reported that semi industry revs in Feb declined 27% YoY, driven by strong consumer spending for mobile phones, DVD players, and digital cameras. Robertson Stephens notes that this was the best YoY comparison since April 2001, and firm believes that this indicates a dramatic amount of inventory has been cleared from the channel and that semi co's are coming closer to seeing the run rate levels for true consumption in end-customer systems.

8:56AM Needham lowers estimates, price targets on EMS co's : Needham lowers their ests and price targets for a number of EMS co's, saying that end mkt demand for electronics outsourcing is ramping at a slower pace than envisioned, especially in the communications sector and particularly in the telecom mkt. Cuts MSV 2002/03 ests to $0.37/$0.62 from $0.50/$0.82 and price target to $10 from $11; cuts PMTR 2003/04 ests to $0.37/$0.60 from $0.51/$0.68 and price target to $15 from $19; cuts PLXS 2002/03 to $0.23/$0.88 from $0.25/$1.06 and price target to $28 from $31; and cuts SANM 2002/03 ests to $0.15/$0.69 from $0.21/$1.26 and price target to $21 from $27.

8:52AM Sun Microsystems seen hitting numbers at Merrill (SUNW) 8.86: Merrill Lynch says channel checks reveal that Sun should be able to meet Mar qtr revenue guidance of flat to up slightly; says demand only picked up in the last week and a half as customers are waiting later in the qtr to make purchases, causing the qtrs to become even more back-end loaded than usual; Merrill says Sun will be cleaning out its pipeline to make the qtr, but the "pull forward" of orders is not significant enough to put the Jun qtr at risk.

8:44AM QLT Inc downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at CIBC (QLTI) 17.05:

8:41AM QLT Inc reduces Visudyne to reflect CMS decision (QLTI) 17.05: -- Update -- Announces that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services posted to its website late Friday afternoon that it has decided not to uphold its original intention to expand the national coverage policy for Visudyne to include patients with occult subfoveal choroidal neovascularization secondary to age-related macular degeneration. Decision leads QLTI to reduce its forecast range of Visudyne in 2002 to $275-$300 mln.

8:39AM Agilent Tech named SG Cowen Action Idea of the week (A) 34.96: SG Cowen names A their Bottom Line Action Idea of the week, as key businesses have either begun to turn up solidly (wireless, networking, imaging components, as well as semi test and network management/monitoring) or have been stabilizing for some months (general purpose test & measurement and communications test). Price target is $37.

8:29AM ONI Systems: Nortel drops four of five patent claims (ONIS) 5.80: -- Update -- Announces that Nortel (NT) has agreed to dismiss all claims related to four patents purportedly infringed by ONIS. "We will continue to defend ONI against the sole remaining patent in the lawsuit and are confident that we will prevail."

8:29AM XM Satellite subscriber numbers better than expected (XMSR) 13.77: XMSR reported this morning that it had 76,000 subscribers as of March 31, adding 48,000 in Q1; Bear Stearns' Ripple Effect says that analysts were looking for 42,000; company says it remains on track for 360,000 by year-end.

7:40AM BofA upgrades comm equipment vendors : Banc of America raises their ratings on communication equipment systems vendors on the belief that this qtr marks a cyclical inflection point; says Feb data indicates that co's are seeing a return to normal seasonality, and believes that North American capex will start showing sequential qtrly improvement this summer. Upgrades CIEN, CSCO, JNPR, and ONIS to STRONG BUY from Buy, and raises AFCI, LU, NT, and TLAB to BUY from Mkt Perform.

7:30AM : This morning's fair value figures -- S&P 500 fair value: 1148, closed 1 pt above fair value. Nasdaq 100 fair value: 1458, closed 1 pt above fair value. Current indications: S&P 500 futures are -8.20 or 7.2 pts below fair value. Nasdaq 100 is -27.50, or 26.5 pts below fair value.

finance.yahoo.com

The market has been set to open weaker but I am seeing some signs of improvement. I have yet to see any additional warnings released. Middle East tensions are being blamed for the weakness.

RtS
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