55! Got my sale price. This was the last of the shares I bought at 30 last September, leaving me with the final lot bought at 27.50 They go at 60 and 65. That'd be a stretch, but this stock has the ability to stretch far beyond anything I'd consider reasonable (in both directions).
AMAT is now back in that "hump", that you see on all tech stock charts, from about mid-1999 to mid-2000, the brief rocket-shot into low earth orbit. At the latest, the Bubble began in early 1999. Many people think it started in 1995. And we're back to those levels, now. With the fundamentals much, much worse than 2 years ago.
Also: looks to me like we are heading toward another "exogenous shock". The U.S. seems committed to overthrowing the Iraqi government. We are committed, publicly, and can't back down now. But, the entire Arab world just said they oppose this. The U.S. is also gradually coming into line with Israel's position, that Arafat is a terrorist (or at least, deliberately looks the other way while terrorist groups operate from the territory Arafat is supposed to control). There have been anti-American demonstrations in Kuwait. Think about that. If not for the half-million soldiers we send over there, they'd be an Iraqi province, being starved and gassed like the Kurds. Kuwait is not a democracy, so demonstrations can't happen without government approval. But even they won't stand with us, in the next war. Polls have shown that, thoughout the Muslim world, even in places with pro-American governments, the consensus on the street is that Bin Laden did not do 9/11. We are seen as the imperialist aggressors, from Morocco to Indonesia.
So, here's how it lines up: the U.S. and Israel on one side. The entire Arab world (even the Kuwaitis) against us. The Europeans on the sidelines. Maybe England helps us. Maybe Turkey. Nobody else. This is going to be a lot harder than Afghanistan. |
