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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 680.28

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To: j g cordes who wrote (36620)	4/1/2002 6:56:44 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68486

If it is true about the seasonality, then this Q will be sequentially down and as a result nothing to write home about. Calendar Q4 normally would have seen the end of year spending, but we all know that did not appear as carriers kept their hands in their pockets. As a result I am not sure I buy his reasoning. The lag in component stocks by 2 or 3 Q's assumes there is lots of inventory in the channel. I am not sure about that as I would assume telecom providers would buy newer equipment that would give them better competitive advantage, lower cost of ownership and lower cost of operation. Case in point, would an MSO invest in older DOCSIS 1.0 cable modems or would they buy DOCSIS 2.0 cable modems that would let them offer more services. If the turn in telecom spending is true then the ramp would be sooner than expected I think.

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