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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (5902)	4/1/2002 7:25:11 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) of 33421

Recession? What Recession. How can there be a recession when there is no viable second-hand market (for cars especially). A guy, I know, was offered a 5yr old BMW 5 series for - wait for it - 35,000 JPY.(135JPY=1USD) Why? Because that was the price offered by the scrap man. The guy selling it said it was pointless trying to get more in Japan as no-one buys anything second-hand - cars, TVs, VCRs - anything. Now this is a recession? I remember the 90/91 recession in the UK trying to get a job. I walk around Japan and see what everyone calls a recession and laugh. Taxis that cost ridiculous amounts. The thing is everyone compares the economy to the 1988-91 time. The unlimited expense accounts, the crazy real estate and the like. It is absolutely analogous to Y2K comparisons: "Gee the economy is in bad shape we no longer have 8% growth in GDP" or, "XXX has to be cheap down here, its fallen by 75%" Comparisons to bubblicious values, just means we have longer to go than most think. The luck for most Japanese families, is that the wife/mother controls the spending. Now call me stoopid, but if they really want to get the economy 'going' and start (reckless) spending then Mr Mori - sorry Mr Koizumi - had better pass a law letting the husband/father look after the family finances. -macavity

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