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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend

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To: Richard Barron who wrote (2275)4/2/2002 9:26:45 AM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) of 2561
 
Observation --

Just food for thought. I own around 20+ different REITs and I plot them on a graph. I plot dividend yield vertically and payout percentage horizontally. I notice a very definite linear relationship.

REITs with around 70% payout seem to cluster around 7.5% yield, 85% payout seems to yield 8.5%, 65% payout yields 6.6%. 90% payout yields 9.1%. Kind of linear. And there may be some dependency on sector or other fundamentals, but there is definitely a cluster around the regression line.

Maybe some of this is self-selecting, because if I notice a REIT yielding "below" what other with similar payout's, I cut back on my ownership or switch to a REIT which is "above the line". (I am sure there are REITs "below" my line which I choose not to own, and since they do not show up on my graph, it makes my data have an more solid relationship than reality). Anyway, when I spot a REIT "above the line", I investigate and load up on it.

One REIT which I noticed to be Yielding "more than it should", is HIW. It's payout ratio is around 60-65% while most REITs in that range max out at a yield 6.5% or so, HIW is yielding 8.5%. I don't see anything funny in the press releases, financials, or insider activity.

Any thoughts?
thanks,
Grommit.
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