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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (45720)	4/2/2002 11:22:56 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) of 99280

briefing.com commentary on Factory Orders--this was a big miss,without "da planes" it would have been minus 2.0% <<Highlights February factory orders -0.1%, ex-transportation -2.0% Key Factors Powerful 2.4% plunge in nondurable goods orders offset upwardly revised 1.8% rise in durable goods. Defense capital goods jumped 89% (-1.2% ex-def), transporatation rose 10% (-2% ex-trans). "Core" capital goods ex-air/defense (business investment) rose 0.9% -- 4th gain in 5 months, but weak. Shipments (sales) plunged -2.8%, inventories fell -0.4%, backlogs rose 0.3%. Combination left a sharp jump in the inventory to sales ratio to 1.37. Despite the ratio, low inventory levels speed the link from new orders to production. Big Picture The trend in factory orders and sales is stabilizing after the most dramatic plunge since well before the early 90s recession. We expect the upturn to be slow as weak corporate profits continues to limit business investment. The inventory to sales ratio peaked at 1.43 in Sep but has plunged since as the lengthy period of heavy inventory contraction leaves a very low level of stock. But the payoff only comes when orders begin to flow in. The economic recession, due largely to a popped business investment bubble, has left the manufacturing sector struggling as ISM foretells of improvement not! yet seen in actual orders.(--my boldface and!--:) Category Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Factory Orders -0.1% 1.1 0.7 -4.3 7.0 Less Defense -1.2 1.2 0.6 -0.3 2.9 Durable Goods 1.8 1.6 0.9 -6.1 12.4 Nondurable Goods -2.4 0.4 0.5 -2.1 1.0 Unfilled Factory Orders 0.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 0.7 Factory Shipments -2.8 1.4 0.6 -1.2 2.3 Factory Inventories -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 Inventory/Shipment Ratio 1.37 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.39 >>

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