Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 304.96

+0.4%

Dec 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2584)	4/2/2002 12:13:33 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95631

Some questions. Most observers of semis and semi-equips are aware of the huge increase in sales both experienced in 1999-2000 primarily driven by networking and telecom. Most of us have watched the continuous decline in sales experienced by networking and telecom and that is for the companies still in business. The semi companies that are heavy suppliers to telecom have suffered and only consumer semi suppliers (DVD, flat panel, etc.) have decent sales and decent stock performance. Semi-equip orders have plateaued for 11 months at 20-25% of peak orders and fabs are running at low capacity with slow pickup likely. Why are semi-equips so close to peak 2000 valuations (KLAC hit ~70%, NVLS ~80%, AMAT ~50%) with orders at 20-25% of peak? Why is there an apparent disconnect between one end of the chain (CSCO, LU, NT) and the other (AMAT, KLAC, NVLS)?

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