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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 319.11+5.7%Jan 15 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (62580)4/2/2002 1:10:24 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
You have postulated peak prices of double to triple today's level in 4 to 5 years, which is a nice 15% to 22% CAGR. In fine tuning your CC strategy, you are certainly making strong assumptions about the expected volatility as it proceeds along that LT trendline, i.e., that if AMAT trades above 55 during the third week of July, it will thereafter retreat to $45-48. A 13% correction is not extraordinary, but what if it does not happen, and AMAT instead creeps higher? Your strategy implies a set allocation to each of your 8 stocks. But you have not yet faced the reinvestment risk of sitting in cash while your target runs away from you.
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