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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 211.71+3.9%10:27 AM EST
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To: Joe NYC who wrote (76192)4/2/2002 3:23:01 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (3) of 275872
 
Anand's review of P4 2.4 GHz: anandtech.com

The bottom line is that AMD has lost the performance crown. The decision not to increase L2 is going to cost AMD 100s of millions of dollars this year, and will result in AMD running half empty fab.

This insistance of small die size is a disaster in the making. It erased all the strengths of Athlon processor performance-wise. The decent ASPs that AMD was able to charge will evaporate withing 2 months (I know I made this clain in January, and I was wrong, but this time it is for real).

AMD could have had Tbred with die size of approx 100mm^2 keeping up with P4 performance-wise for the rest of the year, with decent ASPs. Instead, Tbred will have die size of 80mm^2, but AMD will face a debacle in ASPs, market share (unit and revenue).

AMD has basically traded ability to produce and sell 8 million CPUs from Dresden (at decent ASPs) for ability to produce 10 million CPUs, but sell only 5 million at lousy ASPs.

I think this stock will be in single digits this year.

Going forward, the decision to cripple Hammer with single memory channel, and not including a forward looking size of L2, is going to make Hammer much less significant than it could have been. Again, the reason is to keep the die size down (in case demand is high, but small die and penalties that come with it will decrease demand).

Joe

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