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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (5906)4/2/2002 4:34:30 PM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Most Market cycles are presumably stochastic, since they are variable in length.

Cycle students find that cycles that are very fixed and reliable for a period of time then tend to dissipate and also to change periodicity.

That makes sense.

Could you tell us more on this point. I'm not sure what you mean about not seeing a cycle on the spectrum; could you give an illustration.

The spectrum of a time series transforms the series into a chart of the frequency and importance of an infinite number of deterministic cycles that compose the data. It shows how much variance in the actual series is explained by each of the cycles. A white noise series has a flat spectrum - no cycle explains anything more than any other length cycle. Significant cycles can be picked out as peaks in the spectrum. A stochastic cycle wouldn't show up as a peak in the spectrum probably because it is isn't a regular enough cycle.
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