Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: orkrious who wrote (2596)	4/3/2002 7:58:34 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95622

OK, I think double dip is a possibility. IF and only IF manufacturers go crazy and over produce beyond the actual consumption rate. If you listen to all the CEO's - they don't see this economy getting better (yet the macro numbers certainly show it to be growing) - they're once bit twice shy.Just like investors they're TOO optimistic at the top and Too Pessimistic at the bottom. In this case I think that is good - it will prevent the overrevving of production rates. Nice steady growth - just exactly what is ideal for equities - especially when combined with 40 years historically low rates. Energy going higher is a hint that rates will stay lower longer.The fed has actually accomplished exactly what they wanted - slower growth and took the bubble out of the market. I really think we've got a great opportunity for good - slow growth with low rates. Manufacturing must produce only at the rate of consumption - which is optimized by low interest rates. Nice long boring consolidations that go up as conservative companies make money - not hype and don't cook the books. All in All a very healthy long term scenario for equities. Certainly not good for fixed income. JMHO Bob

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