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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 230.23-4.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: pgerassi who wrote (76300)4/3/2002 9:38:20 AM
From: combjellyRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
"It does not matter since we are looking at a process limit. "

But that is so hard to determine. Neither company has time to reach the process limit, they both have to move on to the next process before they have a chance to refine the current one all that much. And there is little sign that is changing anytime soon, both are expected to start the transition to 90nm next year. No doubt there will be all the posts about how it won't do AMD much good because they are already using a hybrid 130/90nm process already...

It looks as if desktop TBred will introduce at speeds of 1.53GHz to 1.93GHz (assuming that is the speed of a 2400+). It also looks as if it will have a max. lifespan of 9 months, assuming that it introduces in June and dies when (and if) AMD switches Dresden over to all SOI at the end of the year. Now TBird introduced at 1GHz, and had reached 1.33GHz 9 months later on it's hybrid 0.18/0.13 micron process. So assuming that AMD can get only the same MHz increase, that means they should be able to reach 2.26GHz with Tbred. If the same percentage increase, that's 2.53GHz. If SOI can increase that clock rate by only 10% and the extra pipeline stages for Hammer another 10%, that means Barton should reach 2.5GHz to 2.75GHz, and Hammers should reach 2.75GHz to 3GHz. If that is the case, then the P4 is going to be in serious trouble.
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