T/FIF, a New Plateau Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF, a New Plateau

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To: dalroi who wrote (1075)	4/3/2002 10:35:06 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) of 2243

Stefaan: "better"? I don't know about that, but.... $10/share cash (mostly debt) and one of the highly respected HCV programs. Does anyone, anywhere believe that Wyeth would be shy about assuming $180M of debt? The capitalization is $80M. My first guide to valuing companies is always to ask "what would a major pharma pay?" Would they pay $8 for $9/share of debt? Yes. Would they be able to give part of the company to Aventis for retained royalties? Yes. What is -- IMO -- the no brainer level at which Wyeth would be interested? $12. I don't know where RSV would go. It's -- IMO -- another vacation hold..... buy it and go on vacation. HCV is a $$multi-billion market. BTRN..... we just got caught between a program that has no commercial outlet (AlloMune) and MEDI's indecision and lack of insight. I'm waiting to see what the jerks (MEDI) do before moving more aggressively. We also need to watch the AC meeting for Biogen, of course. Not as a competitor so much as with an eye to mechanism and related issues.

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