good for you, but you might among last to see bad signals
"sky will not fall anytime soon"
I dont expect the sky to fall
I instead expect more tumult, some dollar erosion, higher interest rates, a return by yearend of price inflation evidence, and the slow emergence of natural resources as a very promising asset class
by painting a picture insinuating I expect the sky to fall is off the mark
but on the other hand, do you know of any skies that fell in the last 3 years?
I think the entire financial system is in the birthpangs of tumult
it started with Naz
then came layoffs and failed recovery
then we witnessed the unforgettable WTC attack
our response against Islamic villainy
now Arab counter-attack on Israel
meanwhile, the world is full to the effing brim in dollars
interest rates are absurdly low
and best yet, which is the most overlooked by numbnut investors...
the bond market is under attack by the Federal Reserve
absolute attack, which doesnt even make the news
it wont last long without a revolt by bondholders
you never talk about it
you may not even recognize it
altho it hovers like a gray distant funnel in the sky
in the stock world, the dire signal warning is the inverted yield curve
never since WW2 has it failed to forecast an upcoming recession within 12 months
we saw it in mid-2000
in the bond world, the dire signal warning is the negative real rates
(shorterm rates minus inflation rate)
if not negative now, then very close to zero
never since WW2 has it failed to forecast upcoming resurgence of inflation and a rise in precious metals
no, the sky is not gonna fall
but the very strong winds will rearrange the furniture
you are 95% in cash
thus you are not a participant in anything
so perhaps minimize your protestations
/ jim |
