re: Qualcomm Headbangers & QCDMA colored glasses
<< I admit I have QCDMA colored glasses >>
I hardly noticed. <g>
<< It is a peculiar line of reasoning Eric. I will paraphrase it as follows >>
Let's see how well you paraphrase.
Looking ahead, I can see that you haven't done a very credible job.
Why does that not surprise me?
<< I am amazed how you can still be so rosie about GPRS and going over the edge with EDGE. >>
I am not rosie about GPRS ... or EDGE.
... as a matter of fact, if I put my Qualcomm hat on for a moment, rosie is REALLY the wrong word.
The correct one is !@#$%!
<< I will paraphrase ... "GPRS isn't so bad. With some goosing, ... it can approach some reasonable speeds, >>
Well, if you look around, that is more or less what the carriers of the world are saying is it not?.
Essentially they are saying I do not need CDMA to do data yet. and they are saying that GPRS, which requires considerably less investment - is adequate for their near term needs, and that SPEED is not the key issue in implementing the types of data services they will initially deploy
<< I will paraphrase ... and don't mention ... price to consumer >>
Price to the consumer is whatever they want to charge.
Don't get too carried away with Qualcomm's "Economics of Wireless Data" ...
It was a useless POS when it was published and it is downright comical today.
<< I will paraphrase ... and don't mention ... the cost in bandwidth >>
I didn't.
... but THAT is something they WILL have to consider ...
Now 18 months ago (when Ericsson's EDGE was still back burner and Nokia & Ericsson AMR was still in standardization) that would immediately suggest that if and when GPRS was successful that it would dictate a migration to CDMA ...
... but now that EDGE is in reasonably advanced stages of commercialization there is an alternative to CDMA ... and AMR and frequency reuse and other capacity increasing goodies change the paradigm somewhat.
... and implementation of Wcdma pushes further out.
<< EDGE will be here, I swear, sometime >>
Well you can get into a state of denial like Dr. Jacobs if you would like ...
... but make no mistake about it ...
EDGE will be here.
So will cdma 2000 1xRTT Release A, "I swear" ...
... probably roughly comparable data throughputs ...
... and certified "3G".
<< And this while 6 million 1x users are happily cruising along at 60-80kbps in Korea >>
Ahem. Please make that maybe 4 to 4.2 million.
That's about how many of those 1xRTT subs use voice and SMS & WAP (with Java or BREW) data as opposed to voice only, so far as I can tell from scouring the numbers that the Koreans uniformly provide the Ministry, making it very easy at the moment to figure out approximately how many 1xRTT subs there are - since Korea, to this point in time is the only country where there is any real penetration of 1xRTT.
If you can find anything to the contrary please provide a reference.
<< And this while [??????] 1x users are happily cruising along at 60-80kbps in ... major cities in US. >>
How many of these happy US 1x users spending $30 a month to use minutes from their voice plans for data (hopefully off peak, i.e. 9PM to 7AM & weekends) or $55 per month for 20 MB, or $150 for 150 MB are there?
[Yikes. I replicate 20 MB Notes a day to a Domino server. Guess I won't be doing that wirelessly too soon.]
<< I will paraphrase ... nobody really needs data anyway on a WAP phone >>
WHAT?
We are really sunk. <g>
WAP (or an equivalent] is how one accesses data on a mobile phone.
You haven't paraphrased me too well on that one.
I posed the questions ...
For the majority of early applications and content does speed matter?
... to what degree?
... at what cost?
[I don't pretend to know the answer to those questions]
Do you have an answer? If so, have at it.
Those 4.2 million Korean subs are Wapping merrily along and so are the Japanese, although I guess you wold say "i-moding merrily along".
Verizon & Sprint are waiting for WAP 2.0 with support of color and cascading style sheets to data-enable their phones.
Their is a market for phone as modem or a PC card modem, but it's a small one - albeit important, because it affects the high ARPU business user, provided he or his company can justify the expense of mobility and portability.
The mainstream market for mobile wireless data is for the user of a small form factor reasonably priced device with a small display (monochrome & grey scale giving way to color - if color content available). That dictates a microbrowser (WAP 2 or equivalent) with cascading style sheets that can deal with WML, XHTML, CHTML, etc., and insert graphic images into messages, and the appropriate bearer(s) for same.
I hate WAP but that's the ball game as we start to transition from voice & SMS to voice and data, and eventually voice and rich data.
WAP 2.0 (or an equivalent or alternative) particularly when combined with EMS (maybe) or MMS (more likely), LBS, and downloadable BREW and Java Apps and ringtones and screen-savers will potentially enable 90% of the potential market for mobile wireless data - but it is doubtful that we will see the same type of impact
Korea is interesting isn't it?
Forgetting Japan (i-mode with a tailored color microbrowser) the acceptance rate of WAP (or a WAP equivalent or alternative) in Korea was exponentially higher than any other country in the world ... before 1xRTT, and before color content for color displays, and before BREW or Java, and before imaging phones.
This may be somewhat a matter of culture ... but it is more than that.
The Koreans (carriers, vendors, government) have worked very hard to gain experience with packet-data in a mobile wireless environment starting with IS-95B and WAP 1, and two way SMS. They have a strong developers base who tailor content, and this in turn drove rapid acceptance of color displays, which were introduced shortly after 1xRTT started to stabilize.
It didn't happen overnight.
It won't happen overnight in the US where WAP is every bit as unpopular as it is in Europe, and it won't happen overnight with GPRS in Europe (or here or Asia) or with 1xRTT in the handful of countries where it is being adopted outside of Korea & Japan.
The European carriers (and their US and Asian counterparts) know this, which is why they established the M-Services Initiative, OMAI, and perhaps most importantly on the short haul the GSMA "Fast Track Task Forces", and within those task forces the "E2E Taskforce for Operator requirements for GPRS Features and Services" with their roadmap of features & services that are being more or less uniformly implemented now and that will be implemented over the next year by vendors and carriers.
Have you seen anything like this out of the CDMA community?
<< I will paraphrase ... But I'm real excited with wi-fi. >>
Great job of paraphrasing, once again.
Maybe you should try quoting instead of paraphrasing?
WLAN, PLAN - both complementary to next generation services.
<< where are the [GPRS] subscriber numbers >>
Have you seen a numbers from Sprint PCS on users of those packet-switched data-neutered 1xRTT "3G" Voice phones they are stocking.
How about 1xRTT numbers from Leap, MonetMobile, MetroPCS, Bell Mobility, Telesp, Centennial PR, or Zapp?
Maybe next month 3G [???] Today will throw in KDDI?
Speaking of 3G [???] how come SKT calls 1xRTT 2.5G?
<< And this isn't an apology for Nokey-Pokey? >>
Do you always talk baby talk?
Would you care to tell us what Nokia has to apologize for, or why I need to apologize for Nokia?
They are increasing market share in both their core business and their secondary businesses.
They are maintaining margins while growing top line.
They are the only major wireless player to be consistently profitable, quarter after quarter on a pro-forma, GAAP, or IAS basis.
<< It is a peculiar line of reasoning Eric >>
Why don't you share with us your non-peculiar "line of reasoning".
Since Qualcomm is a core hold for me I would be most interested in your view of the pace of cdma technology adoption and how it affects us as shareholders ...
.. particularly if you would care to do it in a straight up and analytical fashion.
<< I admit I have QCDMA colored glasses >>
Perhaps you could take them off for a few moments and attempt some objectivity.
<< Give me something to go on to see it your way >>
Why?
- Eric - |
