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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Bilow who wrote (23330)4/3/2002 7:37:04 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Many people before have thought that Israel would lose. The general expectation in 1967 was that Israel would lose. After all, the Arabs had twice the weapons (of similar quality) and many times the men. The Soviet Union certainly thought the Arabs would win; that's why they egged on their client state Syria to start the game of brinksmanship that culminated in the Six Day War.

Now Israel has arms far superior to the Arabs, with US supplied weapons, beside their own excellent quality stuff, while the Arabs no longer have the Soviets to supply them. If there is a conventional war, the Arabs will lose, quickly.

What Israel really has to fear is an unconventional war or a war of attrition. You may be sure that Israel has delivered a clear message to all the neigbors that they will find a return address for a dirty bomb and deliver a very harsh response. That's why the Arabs are all behind the current proxy war of attrition strategy, what I call the "shoot'n'whine" strategy. But it's a delicate game keeping such a strategy from blowing up into a conventional war, and Arafat seems to be aiming straight for a Palestinian Gotterdamerung.

The Israelis have no mother country to go back to; they are home with their backs to the sea. They do not intend to suffer another diaspora and will do what it takes to avoid it.
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