Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 96.35

+5.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: h0db who wrote (81773)	4/4/2002 3:22:27 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) of 93625

Hi h0db; Re: "Seriously though, do you think that DDR400 is more than some overclockers' toy?" I don't think DDR400 will see much mainstream use. The next mainstream memory to go at 400Mbps will be a speed grade of DDR2. Re: "What do you think we will see first: dual-channel DDR-1, or DDR-2?" It depends on what you mean by "we". I suppose you haven't seen any dual channel DDR because you don't look in the right places. Are you long this stock? If so, you're really hiding your head deep in the sand. I've seen them for months. Here, buy one from Compaq: nvidia.com Intel is behind in dual channel DDR. They're supposed to catch up with two different chipsets to be introduced in 3Q02. Sometimes Intel meets its schedule, sometimes not. With two chances it's highly likely that they'll get at least one of them released by the end of the year. It looks to me like a lot of Rambus shareholders are holding on because they see that RDRAM still has a niche in workstations based on Intel chipsets. RDRAM is still the fastest (released by Intel) solution for P4s. Intel is closing that niche this year, and they've got two batters coming up to hit. Intel's batting average on chipsets is close to 1000. With two at bats you can be pretty sure that RDRAM will be listed as a "mature" memory type at Intel by the end of the year. I would think that most holders of RMBS are holding based on the perceived chance of a win in court for DDR royalties. So when the RDRAM PC market window snaps shut it's not going to be that big of a deal to investors. But it definitely is going to make some of the more deluded faithful sell. For example, JD_Canuck still thinks that RDRAM production is ramping up, as of a few weeks ago: #reply-17176070 PTnewell is still beating the RDRAM, as opposed to DDR patent royalty, drum and can't say enough about PC1066: #reply-17123928 Until the faithful have given up on RDRAM's survival the stock will drop as the news of Intel's DDR conversion sinks in. But since everyone who reads and believes the technical press already knows this, don't worry about the drop being a sudden one. The people holding RMBS are the remnant, and they will drop off one by one. Sort of like the swimmers in the Atlantic after the Titanic went down. -- Carl P.S. Ain't baseball season grand?

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