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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX)

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To: russet who wrote (2340)4/4/2002 9:17:58 AM
From: nickel61   of 3558
 
I all seriousness, thank you for an excellent post. I have learned something from reading it and will read it several more times. I ask only that you think of one insight that while it won't prove you or I "right" may help you understand a little where you might want to modify your opinions. When in 1970 the US dollar was taken off the gold link, the paper currencies relationship to any "real asset" gold included changed. And changed very profoundly. What I am saying here and elsewhere is that the possible number of pieces of paper that it might take to buy any "real asset" can now change much more dramatically and unexpectedly then any period prior to 1970. So your call to evaluate gold's price history over any period in the last 300 years is not really the issue, nor is it encouraging that the Barrick employee thought it was. The real issue here is will Barrick's forward sales over the next 15 years prove to have been wise in hind sight or simply a strategy that looked prudent as long as it was congruent with the implicit strategy of the US Treasury to put downward pressure on the gold price to boost the value of the US dollar in world trade, The aforementioned and described "Strong Dollar Policy" of Rubin/Clinton and now of the current administration as well. I see this period of currency manipulation as being a distortion in the relative valuations of various "currencies" including gold that was carried on for economic reasons implicit in our position as the world's only fiat reserve currency(US DOLLAR). You argue really that Barrick's management has understood all of this from the beginning and anticipated it with perfect foresight. Having met their management I doubt this. Not that they are not some of the most impressive of gold miners but rather that they are not Robert Rubins equal. Not many are but let's get real. If they were that smart they would have been running Goldman Sachs and Morgan/Chase not providing collateral for them. Best wishes. I hope you catch the one point where I think you are not focusing your attention. You are clearly a deep and thoughtful investor.
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