I agree with most of your post, including, of course, the " he carefully thought out the repercussion."
However, at the same time Bush just gave us the timetable of his priorities, the limits of his power, a better view of his strategies... and what it means for Israel security.
1/ Within a week, ten days maximum, the IDF will have to pull out of most areas, and till then, slow their operations some. What they'll not be able to achieve against the terrorists rings will simply not be done.
2/ Bush first priority is to calm the Arab leaders; as he need their silent help in his big fight against Irak.
For that purpouse, he is somehow putting the Israeli public security in jeopardy; it being understood here that there might be a chance of bringing Arafat to some form of negotiation on the disputed border line.
I must agree with Bush that this is a secondary problem, as far as the world order is concerned.
However, if the plan fails, Israel will not be able to give gthe PA another go, and it will be Arafat's head, or Sharon's, or both that will fall, and the winners will be the local PA terrorists, not the USA, nor the Israeli civilians.
3/ Up to now, no one know for sure what are Arafat's long term plans as far a general Arab terrorism is concerned.
And if we are to analyse the last two weeks, since the Beyrouth meeting, followed by the Passover attack by a guy whose name was in the most wanted list for years without him being arrested, it seems clear to me that Arafat is playing knowingly in Saddam courtyard : keep the US hands tied as long as possible.
And this collusion seems not to be clear to anyone, but to Bush and aids, who prefer to keep it secret.
I just wish I were wrong, because if I am not, within a month, Israel is bound to get more kamikazes, or some loaded scuds, probably both. |
