The key thing to remember here is how all the street was on the same page. Bloch, Batman, Bollinger, Cohen, Applegate, Reilly, ... technicians and fundies alike. Everyone singing the same tune. To include the joe on the street. All aligned with the same market outlook. Things seldom play out the way the masses predict. This market doesn't have an apple in its mouth quite yet but I can tell you that to be long any kind of serious money here could be very hazardous to your wealth. That last rally was just what it took to suck the little guy off the sidelines.
Before the latest rally, (one that I did not see coming) my mantra was that stocks like QCOM, VRSN, AOL, would lead us lower for the year. I absolutely hated the structure of CHKP at 30 and made comments here, afterwhich they ran it up to 38 along with every other tech stock. Look at CHKP today 20. I have missed some of these wiggles. But the long term trends are playing out. The bottom line is stocks are going to be under huge pressure all year. Stocks like ORCL, DIS, and HWP are ready to fall off a cliff. You want to see what potentially could be the next BMY. Take a look at LLY. Looks like it could get killed here. HGSI and CHIR two bios that will be facing huge pressure all year. The same applies to stocks like NOK, AOL, CRUS, MUSE, MERQ, JNPR, PWER, KEI, IONA, SFA....All these stocks represent a wide spectrum of tech and bios.
There are going to be wiggles along the way. But the biggest threat to nasty surprises in stock prices will play out over the next eight to twelve weeks.
Good luck trading.
SO |
